Update 24 June on Easing Middle-East Tensions

US stocks rose Monday as oil slides on Iran’s restrained retaliation to US attacks. Crude oil prices tumbled as investors breathed a sigh of relief that Iran’s response to the US attacks over the weekend was more restrained than expected.

The Dow Jones added 375 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose more than 0.9% Monday.

Iran’s armed forces said Monday they attacked an American base in Qatar after the US hit Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. The response, however, was intercepted by Qatar and no casualties were reported.

This led to a sell-off in oil as traders bet crude supply would not be materially disrupted by the ongoing conflict.

WTI futures dropped more than 7% to settle at $68.51 per barrel. Overnight, they hit their highest levels since Jaauary above $78.

Adding pressure to oil were comments by President Trump. In a Truth Social post, he said that “everyone” should keep oil prices low, and doing otherwise would “play into the hands of the enemy”.

“Markets only care about oil supply shocks, so as long as they stay at bay, we’ll see markets sharply higher,” said Jamie Cox, managing director at Harris Financial Group. “Regardless of whether the President Trump oversold the effectiveness of the strikes or not, the nuclear program in Iran was set back decades.”

To be sure, Iran could target other US bases or close the Strait of Hormuz, which would majorly disrupt global oil flows. In a Sunday interview with Fox News, US Secretary of State Macro Rubio called for the Chinese government to step in and prevent Iran from closing the key trade route. China remains Iran’s most important oil customer.

“While Iran has flirted with closing the Strait of Hormuz, investors aren’y terribly panicked about an oil market calamity, an equanimous view that’s appropriate at this point,” wrote Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge in a Monday note. “Geopolitical risks are undoubtedly elevated in the Middle East right now, but our view remains that the extreme asymmetry of the conflict (with Iran’s military capabilities, and those of its proxy partners, significantly degraded), coupled with Tehran’s relative isolation (with few, if any, allies willing to come to its assistance) and ample global oil supplies, will help keep that fallout contained.”

Iran attacked a major U.S. base in Qatar

The New York Times, June 24, 2205

Iran fired a wave of missiles at the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East yesterday in retaliation for U.S. strikes on three critical nuclear sites in Iran. The Pentagon said that there were no reports of casualties in the attack.

Iran launched short- and medium-range ballistic missiles at Al Udeid, a U.S. air base in Qatar that serves as the forward headquarters for U.S. Central Command and has 10,000 military and civilian personnel. The attack appeared calculated to send a message, while limiting the war’s chances of spiraling out of control.

Officials said that Qatar and the U.S. had received advance warning of the attack, but have not said through what channels. Three Iranian officials said that Tehran needed to strike back at the U.S., but also wanted to allow both sides a possible exit ramp.

President Trump’s first public comments since the attack indicated that he does not plan to retaliate.

“I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice,” Trump said on Truth Social, adding that Iran had “gotten it all out of their ‘system,’ and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE.” In addition to there being no U.S. casualties, he added, “very importantly, there have also been no Qataris killed or wounded.”

“CONGRATULATIONS WORLD,” he declared in a final post. “IT’S TIME FOR PEACE!”

Still, American officials are growing concerned about the potential for retaliation by Iran, or its supporters, on U.S. soil.

Related: Tehran’s missile strike came as Israel said it had launched a barrage of strikes, including one on the notorious Evin Prison in Iran, and promised more in the coming days.

Analysis: President Trump had all but made up his mind to strike Iran before he said last week that he would make a decision “within the next two weeks.”

Economy: Oil prices fell more than 7 percent and stocks rose as investors appeared optimistic that fallout from the U.S.-Iran conflict would be contained.

Putin slams attack on Iran, but offers no support to key ally

AFP, June 23, 2025

MOSCOW: Russian President Vladimir Putin today slammed attacks on Iran as “unprovoked” and “unjustified” in a meeting with Tehran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, but did not announce any concrete support to his key ally in the Middle East.

Moscow is a crucial backer of Iran, but has not swung forcefully behind its partner even as the US launched strikes on its nuclear facilities over the weekend.

“This absolutely unprovoked aggression against Iran is unjustified,” Putin said in televised remarks to Araghchi at the start of their meeting.

Putin did not single out the US attacks, talking instead broadly of “strikes” against Iran, though the Kremlin had earlier today said it condemned and regretted the US strikes.

“There has been a new escalation of tensions in the region, and, of course, we condemn this and express our deep regret in this regard,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, shortly before Putin met Araghchi in the Kremlin.

Putin has pitched himself as a mediator between Iran and Israel, an idea rejected by US President Donald Trump last week.

Araghchi told Putin that Russia has been a “partner and companion” to Tehran and hailed ties between Tehran and Moscow as “very close and longstanding”.

“Iran is exercising legitimate defence against these aggressions,” he added.

Since Israel launched its wave of strikes on June 13, triggering Iran to respond with missiles and drones, Russia has not publicly offered military help to Tehran.

Putin and other officials have also downplayed Moscow’s obligations under a sweeping strategic partnership agreement signed with Tehran just months ago, highlighting that it is not a mutual defence pact.

Russia was “making efforts to help the Iranian people,” Putin said in the meeting, without elaborating.

Asked what specific support Russia might offer, Peskov told reporters that it “depends on what Iran needs. We have offered our mediation services”.

Peskov also said the US strikes on Iran would not affect bilateral relations between Moscow and Washington, saying they were “different issues”.

Putin said last week that Iran had not requested any support from Russia.

US defends strikes on Iran's nuclear sites at UNSC as Russia and China condemn action

Euronews, June 23, 2025

The United States and Israel on Sunday at the United Nations Security Council strongly defended their military action targeting Iran's nuclear sites, saying the regime in Tehran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.

Their remarks came at the UN emergency meeting called by Iran in the wake of US-led strikes on three key Iranian nuclear sites on Sunday, prompting reactions from several UN member states.

"The time finally came for the United States in the defence of its ally and in the defence of our own citizens and interests, to act decisively", Dorothy Shea, the US representative to the UN Security Council. "The Iranian regime cannot have a nuclear weapon", she stressed.

While Israel's envoy, in his remarks, praised the US for the targeted strikes on the Iranian facilities in Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan, warning that a nuclear-armed Iran spelt danger to the world.

"Make no mistake, the cost of inaction would have been catastrophic. A nuclear Iran would have been a death sentence, just as much for you as it would have been for us", Danny Danon said.

Iran vows retaliation, as Russia and China condemn US

The US military struck three sites in Iran early Sunday, entering into Israel’s effort to destroy Iran’s nuclear program in a risky gambit to weaken a longtime adversary.

The decision to directly involve the US comes after more than a week of strikes by Israel on Iran that have moved to systematically eradicate the country’s air defences and offensive missile capabilities, while damaging its nuclear enrichment facilities.

Iran vowed retaliation for the US strikes on its nuclear facilities.

"The timing, nature and scale of Iran's proportionate response will be decided by its armed forces", Amir Saeid Iravani told the Security Council. Iravani accused Israel and the US of destroying diplomacy.

Tehran's key allies, Russia and China, alongside Pakistan, strongly condemned the US military action. They proposed that the 15-member body adopt a resolution calling for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire in the Middle East.

Council members are expected to respond by Monday night, but for a resolution to pass, it must have at least nine votes and not be vetoed by the United States, France, Britain, Russia, or China.

UN chief calls for a peaceful solution

At the session, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for a peaceful solution and diplomacy, saying, “We cannot – and must not – give up on peace.”

He urged immediate and decisive action to halt the fighting and return to “serious, sustained negotiations” on Iran’s nuclear program. He called for talks to find a verifiable solution with full access by U.N. nuclear inspectors and a restoration of trust.

In urging a return to diplomacy and a peaceful solution, Guterres stressed Sunday that one path leads to wider war and the other to de-escalation and dialogue. “We know which path is right,” he said.

Iran’s parliament votes to close vital Straits of Hormuz

Bernama, June 22, 2025

ISTANBUL: Iran’s parliament has approved a measure to close the Straits of Hormuz, the world’s most important gateway for oil transport, following US strikes on three nuclear facilities, a senior lawmaker said on Sunday, according to media reports.

“The parliament has reached the conclusion that the Straits of Hormuz should be closed,” said Esmaeil Kowsari, a member of the parliament’s national security commission in statements carried by state-run television.

“The final decision in this regard lies with the Supreme National Security Council,” Kowsari added. The council serves as Iran’s highest security authority.

The parliamentary vote came after United States aircraft bombed three Iranian nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. The attacks came as the latest escalation in a US-backed Israeli military assault on Iran since June 13, prompting Tehran to launch retaliatory attacks on Israel.

Iran threatens US bases in response to strikes on nuclear sites

AFP, June 23, 2025

WASHINGTON: Iran on Sunday threatened US bases in the Middle East after massive air strikes that Washington said had destroyed Tehran’s nuclear programme, though some officials cautioned that the extent of damage was unclear.

International concern focused on fears that the unprecedented US attacks would deepen conflict in the volatile region after Israel launched a bombing campaign against Iran earlier this month.

Ali Akbar Velayati, an advisor to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said bases used by US forces could be attacked in retaliation.

“Any country in the region or elsewhere that is used by American forces to strike Iran will be considered a legitimate target for our armed forces,” he said in a message carried by the official IRNA news agency.

“America has attacked the heart of the Islamic world and must await irreparable consequences.”

President Donald Trump urged Iran to end the conflict after he launched surprise “bunker buster” strikes on a key underground uranium enrichment site at Fordo, along with nuclear facilities in Isfahan and Natanz.

“We had a spectacular military success yesterday, taking the ‘bomb’ right out of their hands (and they would use it if they could!)” he said on social media.

Defence secretary Pete Hegseth told a Pentagon press briefing that Iran’s nuclear programme had been “devastated,” adding the operation “did not target Iranian troops or the Iranian people.”

Standing beside Hegseth, top US general Dan Caine said “it would be way too early for me to comment on what may or may not still be there.”

“Initial battle damage assessments indicate that all three sites sustained extremely severe damage and destruction.”

Tehran protests

As Iran’s leaders struck a defiant tone, President Masoud Pezeshkian also vowed that the US would “receive a response” to the attacks.

People gathered Sunday in central Tehran to protest against US and Israeli attacks, waving flags and chanting slogans.

In the province of Semnan east of the capital, Samireh, a 46-year-old housewife, told AFP she was “truly shocked” by the strikes as Trump had said he would decide his next move within two weeks.

“Semnan province is very far from the nuclear facilities targeted, but I’m very concerned for the people who live near,” she said.

In an address to the nation hours after the attack, Trump claimed total success for the operation, and vice president JD Vance followed up on Sunday morning.

“We know that we set the Iranian nuclear programme back substantially last night,” Vance told ABC.

But he also suggested Iran still had its highly enriched uranium.

“We’re going to work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel,” he said. “They no longer have the capacity to turn that stockpile of highly enriched uranium to weapons-grade uranium.”

Another Khamenei advisor, Ali Shamkhani, said in a post on X that “even if nuclear sites are destroyed, game isn’t over, enriched materials, indigenous knowledge, political will remain.”

Rafael Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council that craters were visible at the Fordo facility, but no one had been able to assess the underground damage.

He added that attacks on nuclear facilities could cause radiation leaks but the IAEA had not detected any increases.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prayed for Trump at the Western Wall in Jerusalem on Sunday, after hailing the strikes as a move that would “change history.”

Retaliation risk

Israel’s military was also checking the results of the US raid on the deeply buried nuclear facility in Fordo, with a spokesman saying it was uncertain if Iran had already removed enriched uranium from the site.

The main US strike group was seven B-2 Spirit bombers that flew 18 hours from the American mainland to Iran, Caine said.

In response to the attack, which used over a dozen massive “bunker buster” bombs, Iran’s armed forces targeted sites in Israel including Ben Gurion airport near Tel Aviv, with at least 23 people wounded.

At least nine members of the Revolutionary Guards were killed Sunday in Israeli attacks on central Iran, local media reported, as fighting between the two foes continued.

Israeli strikes on Iran have killed more than 400 people since they began, Iran’s health ministry said. Iran’s attacks on Israel have killed 24 people, according to official figures.

The UAE, Qatar and Oman, which had been mediating Iran-US nuclear talks, criticised the US strikes and called for de-escalation, while UN chief Antonio Guterres warned of a cycle of retaliation.

Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen on Sunday repeated their threat to resume attacks in the Red Sea if Washington joined the war, saying they were ready to target US ships.

Bahrain, Kuwait prepare for possible Iran conflict spread

Reuters, June 22, 2025

DUBAI: Bahrain and Kuwait, home to US bases, made preparations today for the possibility the Iran conflict might spread to their territory, with Bahrain urging drivers to avoid main roads and Kuwait establishing shelters in a ministries complex after US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

US forces struck Iran’s three main nuclear sites late on Saturday, and president Donald Trump warned Tehran it would face more devastating attacks if it does not agree to peace.

Tehran had previously warned if it was attacked by the US, it could target American assets in the region, including US military bases.

Bahrain is home to the headquarters of the US Navy’s 5th Fleet and there are several US bases in Kuwait.

“In light of recent developments in the regional security situation, we urge citizens and residents to use main roads only when necessary, to maintain public safety and to allow the relevant authorities to use the roads efficiently,” Bahrain’s interior ministry said in a post on X.

Bahrain also told 70% of government employees to work from home today until further notice, citing escalating tensions, according the Civil Service Bureau.

Kuwait set up shelters in the country’s ministries complex, an extensive compound of buildings that houses several government departments, including the ministries of justice and finance, the finance ministry said.

Bahraini authorities earlier this week said they had activated a national plan and a national civil emergency centre to prepare in case of emergencies and proceeded to test warning sirens across the country.

Regional media also reported the country had set up 33 shelters.

Iran launches wave of missiles at Israel following US bombing of nuclear sites

Euronews, June 22, 2025

Iran launched a wave of more than 40 missiles at northern and central Israel, leaving at least 86 people injured. The attack came just hours after Israel and the United States launched a coordinated attack on Iran, which included the bombing of three of its nuclear sites.

Israel's health ministry reported that of those who arrived at hospitals, two people were moderately wounded and 77 others were in good condition.

Israeli local media reported residential areas in Tel Aviv and the central town of Nes Ziona being struck. Tel Aviv's Deputy Mayor Haim Goren said that hundreds of homes were damaged in the attacks.

Meanwhile in the northern city of Haifa, an IDF spokesperson said an Israeli air defence interceptor malfunctioned and crashed during the Iranian attack, causing damage and lightly wounding several people.

Israel and Iran have been exchanging fire ever since Israel launched an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities on June 13.

So far, at least 25 people have been killed in Israel, according to Israeli local media. In Iran, at least 430 people have been killed in Israeli strikes, according to the country's Health Ministry.

Pakistan condemns Trump’s bombing of Iran a day after Peace Prize nomination

Reuters, June 22, 2025

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan condemned on Sunday the strikes ordered on its neighbour Iran by Donald Trump, a day after Islamabad had said it would nominate the US President for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Pakistan on Sunday said Trump’s decision to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities violated international law and that diplomacy was the only way to resolve the Iran crisis.

“The unprecedented escalation of tension and violence, owing to ongoing aggression against Iran is deeply disturbing. Any further escalation of tensions will have severely damaging implications for the region and beyond,” Pakistan’s ministry of foreign affairs said.

Also on Sunday, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif telephoned Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and “conveyed Pakistan’s condemnation of the US attacks,” a statement from the Pakistani leader said.

Pakistan’s information minister and the foreign ministry did not respond to requests for comment on the apparent contradiction in the country’s positions over the weekend.

In Pakistan’s biggest city, Karachi, thousands marched in protest against the US and Israeli strikes on Iran.

A large American flag with a picture of Trump on it was placed on the road for demonstrators to walk over. The protesters shouted out chants against America, Israel and Pakistan’s regional enemy India.

Pakistan on Saturday said it was nominating Trump as “a genuine peacemaker” for his role in bringing a four-day conflict with India to an end last month. It said he had “demonstrated great strategic foresight and stellar statesmanship”.

My take on Bursa stocks

As the tensions in the Middle East appear to be easing over the past 48 hours, I think the worst of impacts on Bursa stocks is over for now.

Fellow investors may start to accumulate defensive and quality stocks at price weakness. For a start, YTL Power and Eco-Shop are my top picks for this month or next. However, as always, do not chase high any stock.

YTL Power stock just went ex for its 4.0 sen interim dividend yesterday and the share price adjusted lower to RM3.60 this morning. The share price dropped to a low of RM3.51 yesterday morning but quickly rebounded to close flat yesterday, after briefly going into the positive territory. The share price has painted a long tail in the chart yesterday, signaling a bullish sign. I expect multiple good news coming for YTL Power in the next few weeks leading to the Q4 result announcement in late August.

Eco-Shop share price dipped to a low of RM1.21 yesterday before rebounding to close flat. The stock has tested the RM1.20-1.21 support level four times in the month of June since it broke up RM1.20 in late May. Eco-Shop business is not affected by the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and entirely domestic consumption driven. Its expansion plan is well on track to add 70 new retail outlets every year, fueling a double-digit growth in business and earnings every year for the next 5 years. Eco-Shop is poised to announced its first quarterly earnings report post listing in mid July. This Q4 FY2025 quarter will incorporate about 1.5 months of price hike effects after the company raised selling price from RM2.40 to RM2.60 in mid April 2025. I expect double-digit earnings growth YoY and flattish-to-slight positive QoQ earnings in Q4.

IOIPG share price dipped to a low of RM1.85 yesterday but closed positive at RM1.90, indicating the strength of buyers, despite EPF selling. IOIPG will be launching its trophy project, Marina View Residences in Singapore CBD on June 28, 2025. The starting selling price of SGD3,800 psf seems fair as other premium condominiums in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) are already selling at over SGD3,000 psf. The average selling price for Marina View Residences remains at SGD5,000 psf. A 2-bedroom unit of 550sf would sell at around SGD2.1m and require a maintenance fee of around SGD1,200 per month. The monthly mortgage will be around SGD4,900 based on a 30-year loan at 3% interest rate, so it is affordable for most working-class middle-income groups in Singapore.

AEON share price may not see much chance of rally in next few months as the coming two quarters (Q2 & Q3) are seasonally weaker than Q1, and EPF has been persistently selling the stock. EPF still had 6.017% stakes in AEON as of 29 May 2025. I expect EPF to gradually pare down its stakes in AEON to 5.0% level, meaning that it will sell another 14m shares over probably 4-6 weeks.

Net short positions on YTL Power increased slightly to 25.6m shares at close Monday, while net short positions on YTL dropped to 27.7m shares.