YTL Power - UK Brabazon Property Project
YTL Power is sending out invitations to various guests to YTL’s launch of the Brabazon New Town by YAB Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim, Prime Minister of Malaysia on 15 January 2025. The launch of Brabazon, a 380-acre development of the former Filton airfield and Brabazon hangars will celebrate the new CPTPP trade agreement between Great Britain and Trans-Pacific Partnership.
It is hence timely for me to give an update to this massive property project.
Revised Master Plan for Brabazon
In late February 2024, South Gloucestershire Council has granted permission for revised plans from YTL Developments to redevelop the former Filton Airfield in Bristol. Updated plans to build 6,500 new homes, including the west of England's largest urban park, have been unanimously approved.
As the birthplace of Concorde and supersonic travel, home to over 100 years of aviation history, the former Filton Airfield is known worldwide for a community that changed the world. Under the revised plans, Brabazon will transform the largest area of brownfield land in the South West into a new urban destination that lives up to that legacy.
Crucially, the plans are based on a flexible framework so that development is phased alongside improved transport links.
The vision for Brabazon – developed by world-renowned architects and planners including JRDV Urban International (US), alongside Bath-based Feilden Clegg Bradley Studios (UK), SWA Group (US), Grant Associates (UK) and YTL Construction Design Group (Mal) – also includes up to 3 million square feet of commercial space: enough to support 30,000 jobs and is forecast to create over £5billion of added economic value for the local area.
The plans also include new schools, a research campus, office spaces, laboratories, cafes and restaurants. Developers won’t be allowed to build some of the new homes until they can prove public transport has been improved, to prevent clogging up the nearby road network with cars.
A 15-acre park will include habitats for wildlife, the developer said.
A spokesperson from YTL Developments said the regeneration is "a once-in-a-generation opportunity".
Planning permission to transform the site into a new urban community - thought to be one of the largest brownfield sites in the UK - was granted by the council in 2018.
Originally the application included 2,500 homes, but that has now increased.
The area will be known as Brabazon and will also be home to Bristol's long-awaited indoor arena, as well as a new train station.
The urban park will also support the environment, offering new habitats for wildlife
Seb Loyn, Planning & Development Director for YTL Developments, said: "If we are to tackle the climate crisis, we need to build more sustainable homes in the right places.
"Brabazon is on brownfield land along existing public transport corridors. Maximising its potential will ease pressure on the green belt."
Brabazon will also be a hub for culture, creativity and entertainment. Residents and visitors will be able to wander around independent stores, discover new cafes and restaurants or relax in over 86 acres of public space, from leafy squares to Brabazon Park: the largest new public park in the South West for 50 years. And at its heart will be the supersonic new YTL Arena Bristol, with a capacity of over 17,000.
Finally, Brabazon will be connected to Bristol city centre and beyond with over £100m already being invested into the local transport network. A new rail station will connect the neighbourhood to Bristol Temple Meads in less than 15 minutes. Three MetroBus stops will link Brabazon with Bristol Parkway mainline train terminus, with the shops and restaurants at the South West’s largest retail centre Cribbs Causeway, and with the University of the West of England. And 3 kilometres of new segregated walking routes and cycle paths will be created.
The park will feature a heritage trail, connecting the Brabazon Hangars with Aerospace Bristol Museum.
A floating boardwalk around the lake, independent cafes, restaurants and outdoor sports facilities are also in the plans.
Councillor Chris Willmore said: "This is a historic place-shaping decision by the council for a major sustainable community with the necessary infrastructure to create a truly outstanding place.
"The plans for Brabazon will create a major new community for South Gloucestershire and a new quarter for the wider Bristol area."
Visitors will be able to wander along the floating boardwalk around the lake (Image: YTL Developments)
Councillors on the strategic sites delivery committee at South Gloucestershire Council voted to approve planning permission today (Thursday, February 29, 2024). Developers previously had permission to build 2,675 homes, but the new Brabazon development will now be much larger and greener.
Speaking to the committee, Simon Fitton, technical planning director at YTL, said: “Today hopefully represents a huge milestone in the evolution of Brabazon. This consent will allow for review to ensure the transport strategy is working, and the right amount of education, community and health facilities are available and meeting everyone’s needs.
“Should the public transport improvements we anticipate not happen, we have committed to pause if needs be and agree to further mitigation to allow the development to continue. Few other developers are willing to make such promises, but we see this as a pragmatic way to work in partnership with the council and National Highways.
“There’s probably no other site outside of London that can minimise the need to travel by car, plan around new public transport and create a thriving walking and cycling neighbourhood. We’ll deliver over 1,700 affordable homes, and the commercial floorspace would also triple with jobs rising to 30,000. And we’ll deliver more public open space than under the current permission.”
Construction is already taking place on the first phase of homes, as well as the main spine road through the area. Over 150 homes have already been finished and are occupied by March 2024.
As well as new housing, the plans include three hotels, 600 extra care units, 270,000 square metres of offices, 55,000 square metres for industrial uses, 25,000 square metres of town centre uses, student accommodation, two primary schools, one high school, community buildings, health and sports provision. An arena and new train station are also planned on adjacent sites.
Councillor Sanjay Shambhu, representing Charlton and Cribbs, said: “The former Filton Airfield site is brownfield and perfectly suited for a development of this size and scope. This development will bring significant benefits to my ward and to the wider district with a boost to economic activity and enhanced public services. There’s a great deal of support for this locally.”
The development will be split into phases, to ensure there’s not an adverse impact on the local road network. This means YTL won’t be allowed to build all of the homes planned, unless critical upgrades to buses and trains take place. As part of the development, several new bike lanes and bus routes are planned, and there will be few car parking spaces for residents.
Cllr Adrian Rush said: “Transport is the one thing that worries me more than anything else. That’s because we’ve completely failed to change modal transport ever in South Gloucestershire.
“We’re looking here to change people’s attitudes away from cars and into buses and trains, where it’s never happened before in this county that we’ve been able to do this. I’m worried it’s not going to happen, and I’m hopeful that if we get to the stage where they review it and it’s not working quite as well as they’d thought, we can go back and start thinking again.”
'It will transform the entire area'
Another concern was service charges which future residents will have to pay. These will go towards a management company responsible for running the public open spaces and parks. Some councillors suggested these should be handed over to the local parish councils instead.
Speaking after the meeting, Seb Loyn, planning and development director for YTL Developments, said: “The approval of the new masterplan for Brabazon is a once in a generation opportunity. It will transform not just north Bristol and South Gloucestershire, but the entire West of England.
“The region desperately needs more homes. Brabazon will deliver 6,500, with over 1,700 being affordable. Local businesses need space to grow and expand: Brabazon will provide over 3 million square feet of commercial space. That means that the local cluster of world-leading engineering, aerospace and technology firms can provide new opportunities for young talent.
“But if we are to tackle the climate crisis, we need to build more sustainable homes in the right places. Brabazon is on brownfield land along existing public transport corridors. Maximising its potential will ease pressure on the greenbelt. This decision paves the way for YTL Developments to build the new homes, offices, schools and community facilities we all need, and to do so in a way that is environmentally and economically sustainable.”
Councillor Chris Willmore, cabinet member for planning, added: “This is a historic place-shaping decision by the council for a major sustainable community with the necessary infrastructure to create a truly outstanding place. The plans for Brabazon will create a major new community for South Gloucestershire and a new quarter for the wider Bristol area, built on brownfield land.
“We have been working positively with YTL Developments and National Highways to ensure the right infrastructure will be in place. As well as delivering 6,500 high quality homes, 1,724 of these will be affordable homes for social rent and shared ownership, and there will be office and industrial floor space, which in conjunction with the construction work has the potential to create over 30,000 jobs.
“The development will help reduce reliance on car travel with Metrobus and local buses serving the area along with the train station which already has secured planning permission. A community hub and health care facility will also be provided, along with parks, lakes and open spaces, with over 3,500 trees planted on the site.”
Current UK House price trend
As of November 2024, house prices across the UK property market show annual growth of 2.9%, bringing the national average to £291,828, according to the Office for National Statistics.
According to Plum Plot, the following data reflects the latest property trends in key UK cities:
London: Prices in the capital average £525,586, with a slight annual decline of 0.5%. Despite slower growth, London remains a cornerstone for residential property investment, thanks to robust rental demand and its global appeal.
Manchester: With an average price of £248,000, Manchester offers affordable entry points and high rental yields. This makes it a top location for property investment in the UK, particularly as its price remains 16.2% lower than the national average.
Liverpool: Liverpool’s average property price of £180,000 highlights its affordability and growth potential. The city’s Knowledge Quarter and ongoing regeneration projects make it a hotspot for residential property investment.
Birmingham: As the UK’s second-largest city, Birmingham’s average price of £250,000 reflects steady growth. With transformative infrastructure projects like HS2, Birmingham is a leading location for investors and homeowners in the UK.
Brabazon is near Bristol which is 191km west of London. It takes 1 hour 37 minutes by train and 2.5 hours by car to reach Bristol from London.
The average property price in Bristol city is £378k, the median price is £335k. The average price increased by £7.0k (2%) over the last twelve months. The price of an established property is £379k. The price of a newly built property is £374k. There were 5.7k property sales and sales dropped by 23.6% (-1.9k transactions). Most properties were sold in the £300k-£400k price range with 1696 (29.7%) properties sold, followed by £250k-£300k price range with 981 (17.2%) properties sold.
Estimated Earnings Potential of Brabazon Project
I have earlier estimated a total GDV of GBP1.8 billion for the Brabazon property project. That was based on 6,500 homes at an averaged price of GBP275,000, without counting in the development value for the commercial space.
Total commercial space will be close to 4 million sf (three hotels, 600 extra care units, 270,000 square metres of offices, 55,000 square metres for industrial uses, 25,000 square metres of town centre uses and 2,000 rooms of student accommodation)
Now with the improved connectivity between Brabazon and Bristol city (just a 15 min train ride away), the average home prices in Brabazon will be closer to GBP300,000 for new launches from YTL. The planned 4 million sf of commercial space (retails units, offices and shops) may have GDV of GBP2.0b to GBP2.4b, so the total GDV may amount to GBP4.0 billion to GBP4.4 billion.
I now assume 20% of the commercial space will be for sale and the other 80% for long term rental income, as opposed to my earlier assumption that all commercial space was for rental income.
Assuming the development will take 10 years, I calculate that the potential sales from Brabazon will be about GBP245 million every year. I maintain a pretax profit margin of 25% for the property sales, as I think it is now even more likely to achieve after the UK has signed up CPTPP with Malaysia and there is no import duty for building materials and construction equipment imported from Malaysia. So there will be about GBP61 million of pretax development profit and GBP46 million (RM270 million) of net profit contribution from Brabazon to YTL Power every year for the next 10 years.
As for the potential recurring rental income, I still assume average rental rate of GBP25-30 psf per year. So for 3.2 million sf of commercial space, the potential gross rental revenue will be GBP80m - 96m a year. Deduct 25% for miscellaneous charges and 25% corporate tax, the net potential rental income from Brabazon to YTL Power will be as much as GBP54 million or RM310 million a year.
In short, I estimate that the potential earnings contribution from UK Brabazon property projects to YTL Power will amount to RM300 million a year initially, increasing over time to as much as RM580 million a year.
We shall see if there is any revision to the master plan when Brabazon is officially launched next week, and I shall then amend the earnings projection accordingly.