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Observatory's avatar

A found a few HK commentary on Bright Smart acquisition:

老牌港資券商耀才證券(01428),大股東葉茂林在港股重現生機,每日成交額超過2000億元之時,反而無心戀戰選擇「求去」,以大約28.1億元的作價,把手上的50.55%持股轉售予馬雲及阿里(09988)控制的螞蟻集團。

葉茂林賣盤似「賤價賣仔」

雖然這次賣盤,為葉茂林換來一叠叠的鈔票,但與10年前他以4億元「靚價」出售「夜場股」Magnum,現為奧克斯國際(02080)予另一中資財團相比,今次卻顯得被對方「撳價」。據公告指出,是次交易的每股作價為3.28元,較停牌前的3.05元有7.5%的溢價,然而,耀才證券於本月初披露,公司預期截至3月底的財政年度,純利為6.1億元,較上一個財政年度的5.6億元,升幅約為一成,今次賣盤反映耀才證券的市值約為55.6億元,相當於市盈率的9.1倍左右。

本地券商龍頭、騰訊(00700)有份參股並於美國上市的富途,截至去年底的純利為54.3億元,而上周五(25日)收市後的市值為122.3億美元(約953.94億港元),市盈率達到17.6倍;小米(01810)有份投資、老虎證券的母公司向上融科,去年全年純利為6072萬美元(約4.7億港元),但市值則有13.6億美元(約106.08億港元),市盈率高達22.4倍,可見今次耀才證券賣盤,估值上僅得富途一半,甚至比起規模及利潤更小的老虎證券,更有明顯的大折讓,今次賣盤與當年Magnum相比,實在難言是「靚價出售」。

為何葉茂林要在耀才證券純利仍有增長之時,卻要狠心「賤價賣仔」?說到底,其實是為勢所迫。疫情過後,中資科網公司在香港「插旗」策略,已非過去試水溫、打響品牌知名度為主,而是直接「燒錢」以本傷人搶市場,搶奪對價格敏感的零售客戶。由富途證券初登陸香港,已推出免佣及新股免手續費,新客送股等手段吸客,到美團(03690)2023年宣布以Keeta品牌燒錢10億元攻港,最終上月成功逼走「袋鼠」Deliveroo;電商京東(09618)則在去年宣布在香港投入15億元人民幣發展,向王維基的香港科技探索(01137)步步進逼。

客戶價格敏感 本地行生意難做

面對這些市值動輒逾千億元、進軍香港就燒錢以十億元計的內地互聯網企業,僅固守香港的港資企業,幾乎毫無招架之力。雖然港資企業的優勢是本身已擁有大量客戶,但大部分的零售客戶都對價格更敏感,近期的北上消費潮可見一斑。內地企業可提供相若的服務,但價格卻大幅度比港資企業便宜,既可搶走客戶,也可逐步「陰乾」港資競爭對手。另一方面,這些進軍香港的大型互聯網公司,大都是「現金牛」企業,燒個十億八億並不影響公司「體質」,而且有廣大內地用戶繼續買單,可以長期打消耗戰。

螞蟻集團收購耀才證券,意味未來內地互聯網企業的「燒錢」競爭,終會蔓延至證券行業。對葉茂林來說,要不現在低價賣盤,要不「資本過後,寸草不生」,早走早着似乎更顯精明。

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Observatory's avatar

我最初在投行工作時,由於崗位是向散戶銷售產品,需主動聯絡不少市佔率較高的券商合作,亦從合作夥伴名單多年間的轉變,見證了港資券商退場過程。整個轉變的幾個關鍵點,分別是最低佣金撤銷、延長交易時段,以及網上交易在疫情期間的高速發展。

我第一份工作是在港資券商工作,為他們擴展業務。當時正值最低佣金撤銷,市場走向價格戰,港資券商如沒有太多經紀的包袱,生意反而一下子增長很快,因為撤銷最低佣金後,散戶開始由銀行轉至佣金較便宜的券商,佣金的差異足以令投資者,特別是喜歡短炒的投資者,由銀行快速轉到券商交易。可是,本身有大量經紀的港資券商往往難擋大經紀壓力難以減佣,在數年間便輸掉了新一代的投資者,成為港資券商第一階段的洗牌,能有效平衡經紀與網上交易利益的券商,至今場內三隻手指可數。怎樣平衡收益?就是經紀如要收高佣金,便需提供額外增值服務予自己的客戶,例如投資意見及心靈輔導。而不需此類服務的客戶,則可繼續使用佣金具市場競爭力的網上交易服務。說易行難,而當經紀業務還可吊命,惟大多券商多一事不如少一事,埋下愈做愈縮的結局。

延長交易時段 趕即日鮮客

在港股延長交易時段後,市場日波幅收窄即日鮮難做,原先在「吊鹽水」的券商,零售投資者數量進一步下降,部分只好轉型至財富管理業務。然而,財富管理亦面對銀行的競爭,本身客戶不是高收入群的券商,最終只有逐步結業,這是第二輪的港資券商洗牌。其時,富途開始高速發展,令第一輪在低佣中勝出的港資券商又開始面對挑戰。

富途的成功崛起,與本港證券市場在2016年至2018年間的低潮期,券商利潤持續下降,以致港資券商不願花費提升網上交易系統的軟硬件,有極大關係。富途的創辦人為騰訊(00700)前員工流量思維入血,在建立流量後,亦可在資本市場上取回所失,故一開始便不計成本,在網上平台上提供的資訊,令買入的軟硬件速度皆高於傳統港資券商,這都比深陷不知如何轉型,甚至月月見紅的港資券商為佳。當港資券商冬眠,網上交易系統的差距,使富途搶得更多客戶。除了資本多,不怕蝕外,更重要的是富途的科技團隊皆在深圳,人工較便宜可維持百人團隊,成就了現時的交易及社群生態。自設科技團隊,相對港資大多外判科技支援,以及緊縮的研發開支,幾年已見分野。富途藉網上交易系統技術上領先,漸漸變成「每三個成年人有一個有富途」。當富途佔比愈來愈大,港資券商大多為家族式經營,老闆年紀漸大自然走向賣盤榮休的方向。後來仿富途的低佣內資券商群起,兼以高補貼搶開戶,雖然大部分都鎩羽而回,但疊加疫情時迫使券商及客戶轉向網上交易,成為壓垮港資券商的最後一根稻草。

螞蟻未必能挑戰富途

不知讀者知不知,其實華盛、Webull也有科技公司股東。華盛是新浪,Webull是騰訊,長橋也有阿里(09988)。數年間不少內地證券商南下大推網上交易平台,但其實對富途幾近零影響。原因部分是經營策略,部分是只懂抄富途「功課」,而無力亦無眼界去針對富途做得不夠好的地方。簡單說,以財力複製與富途一模一樣的殼並無意義。如有消息令富途股價大跌兩成以上,可考慮入場。

耀才(01428)之所以能用港資券商身份,在網上交易系統較弱下仍可佔一份額,我認為是不太「富途」,它更着重維持已有的客戶,以及與其業務策略至少有跟隨環境改變有關(不談是否做得很好)。所以,雖說周一(28日)耀才股價必大炒特炒,但長遠螞蟻能否把耀才變成另一富途,我抱有懷疑。觀乎螞蟻銀行在虛擬銀行中的介面,業務多年來愈輸愈多。我想說的是,做證券要突圍而出非開戶補貼便行,而是要懂客戶需要,加上近年券商已朝向客戶提供人工智能(AI)方向發展。現時券商已近零佣,要客再轉戶或開新戶,要有合理推動原因。我的推測反而是螞蟻銀行的較低資金成本可用以借給新證券商,擴大孖展利潤。畢竟現時耀才近三成多收入來自借孖展,而對手富途近五成,但財務成本遠高於富途,如能銀證結合則有助降本增效。

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Dragon Leong's avatar

Thanks Observatory for the sharing. I do agree that Bright Smart may not be as good as Futou which is larger and more tech savvy. But Bright Smart has one of the largest retail investor client base in Hong Kong, which may be exactly the reason why Ant Group wants to gain control of. As the commentary above suggests, big tech firms from China like Tencent and Meituan are splashing billions to gain entry into online trading business in China and Hong Kong, so whatever Futou has in its tech offerings is still non-comparable with those offered by China big techs through Tiger Securities or others. Bright Smart is slow in tech rollouts but has something that the larger firms may not have. It is small & beautiful.

Even after Ant Group gains control of Bright Smart and transform it into a more tech savvy security firm, it may not be able to compete with the more established Futou or Tencent subsi as the article above suggests.

So the share price surge of Bright Smart yesterday and today is more speculative to me. Hence, I clear off my holdings in Bright Smart this afternoon with my last batch of holdings sold at HKD6.68 for a 200% gain in 6 months. A jackpot to me.

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Observatory's avatar

Congratulations for the handsome profits!

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Dragon Leong's avatar

Thanks. This is another handsome profit after the first one given by TGuan-W and second one given by YTL Power in 2024.

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Peter Wong's avatar

congratulations on the great exit sale of your HK investment

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Dragon Leong's avatar

Thanks. I was just lucky.

Still suffering from some losses in my investments in Alibaba and JD.com.

I have cut loss on Ping An, and missed Xiaomi at HKD35. Too bad.

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Peter Wong's avatar

well.....the bright smart counter turned out to literally be bright and smart decision and it gave you huge return in a short period of time, pretty much won back your losses...

i too made losses on alibaba, but managed to snag a little xiaomi at 38.50

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Dragon Leong's avatar

Well done! you managed to buy Xiaomi at below HKD40, that was a steal! Also, I missed to add more Alibaba at HKD100 last week, another big miss. I was watching it drop below the key support level of HKD118-120, thinking the next support should be HKD100, but when it hit that level, I did not dare to buy in due to weak market sentiment. Sigh... not enough conviction.

I sold my last batch of Bright Smart at HKD6.68 this afternoon, but it went up after that to a high of HKD7.68!! aiyo, that's not the money I could earn.

Nonetheless, it was still a fantastic return to me, a 200% gain in 6 months from Bright Smart.

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Peter Wong's avatar

not possible to win all the time, but if wins outweighs losses most of the time, it is already a great achievement that many won't be able to experience despite being in the market for many years

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